(Newswire.net — December 13, 2019) — Scottish Prime Minister Nicola Sturgeon told thousands of supporters in Glasgow, at a rally demanding a new referendum on independence, that Scotland’s independence is “within reach”.
“The December 12 election is the most important one for Scotland in our era. The future of our country is at stake,” said the leader of the Independent Scottish National Party (SNP).
Since the option for Brexit won by a narrow majority at the elections, Scotland is starting preparations for leaving the UK and rejoining the European Union. However, this would be very hard because using the same principle, the Spanish region Catalonia would demand independence from Spain and that would induce a major geopolitical storm in the EU.
On the other hand, Scots simply don’t want to leave the EU. Sturgeon states that Brexit happened in the meantime. One of the arguments for staying within the UK in 2014 was that in the event of independence, Scotland would cease to be part of the EU. Two years later, in 2016, in a Brexit referendum, 62 percent of Scots voted to remain in the EU.
The Scottish Prime Minister hopes that in the event of opposition Labor MPs winning the election, the new Prime Minister will support her plan for a new referendum. But Labor leader Jeremy Corbyn said the new referendum “is neither necessary nor desirable,” and he is right according the fullfact.org article titled “What does leaving the EU mean for Scotland?”
The article cited The House of Commons Library which says that there are at least three general possibilities for what could happen next if Scotland decides to leave the UK, and that it is all regulated under the International law:
1. “If Scottish independence was classed as a ‘continuation’ of the UK and ‘secession’ of Scotland, the rest of the UK would retain its treaty obligations and membership of international organizations but Scotland would not.” This practically means the Scotland would be treated as a new country such as the rogue Serbian province Kosovo or Northern Macedonia which was a former republic of Yugoslavia.
2. “If Scottish independence was classed as a ‘separation’ of the UK, both Scotland and the rest of the UK would retain these obligations and memberships.” This is merely the point of a view and it would be hard to imagine the British parliament would green light such a declaration.
3. “If it was classed as a ‘dissolution’ of the UK, both Scotland and the rest of the UK would lose them [obligations and privileges].”
When joining the European Economic Community in 1973, the United Kingdom (UK), through a series of decisions, transferred individual competences to Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales, in areas such as agriculture, trade, environmental policy and international relations.
Given that many decisions are being made at a European Union (EU) level, it remains unclear how power will be allocated upon the return of jurisdiction. Scotland’s and Northern Ireland’s pro EU option is gaining a momentum making it hard to predict what will happen next.