(Newswire.net— May 7, 2020) — By 2070, more than three billion people will live in places with temperatures “near unbearable,” according to a new study, BBC reports.
If greenhouse gas emissions are not reduced, a large number of people will live in places where the annual average temperature is around 86 degrees, and during the summertime, it will be dangerous to be outside of airconditioned space amid temperatures higher than 100F.
“The study hopefully puts climate change in more human terms,” the co-author of the study Tim Lenton told the BBC.
Researchers used data and projections of the population of the United Nations and a scenario that projects a temperature rise of three degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit), which is based on the expected global rise in temperature.
The UN report says that even if some countries continue to adhere to the Paris Climate Agreement, the world is on the way to a temperature rise of three degrees Celsius. The 3-degree rise does not seem like much, however, it may induce further climate changes with catastrophic consequences.
According to the study, the human population lives in rather narrow climatic zones, with most inhabiting areas where the average temperature is between 50 and 60 degrees Fahrenheit.
A small number of people live in environments with an average temperature of 70-80 degrees.
If global warming were to lead to a three-degree Celsius (5.4F) rise in temperature, a huge number of people would end up living in places that are above the “climate limit”.
As a climate specialist and director of the International Institute at the University of Exeter, Mr. Lenton conducted the study in collaboration with scientists from China, the United States, and Europe.
The soil is warming faster than the ocean by more than three degrees, researchers say. An increase in population is already expected in warm areas, mainly in Sub-Saharan Africa, which moves the average person to warmer areas,” says Lenton.
“It’s shifting the whole distribution of people to hotter places which themselves are getting hotter and that’s why we find the average person on the planet is living in about 7C warmer conditions in the 3C warmer world,” Mr. Lenton said.
Areas such as northern Australia, India, Africa, South America, and parts of the Middle East are projected to have temperatures hardly bearable for sustained living. Naturally, the study raises concerns – how poorer countries and areas will be protected from the heat?
“For me, the study is not about the rich who can just get inside an air-conditioned building and insulate themselves from anything. We have to be concerned with those who don’t have the means to isolate themselves from the weather and the climate around them,” Mr. Lenton said.
He added that the main message of the research team was that limiting climate change would be of great benefit to people everywhere as it would reduce the number of people living beyond the limit of climate-tolerant conditions.