(Newswire.net — September 8, 2014) — Supporters of Scottish independence from Britain have taken their first opinion poll lead since the referendum campaign began, indicating a real possibility that they might win, according to a YouGov survey for the Sunday Times newspaper.
With less than two weeks to go before the Sept. 18 vote, the poll put the “Yes” to independence campaign at 51 percent against “No” camp with 49 percent, overturning a 22-point lead for the unionist campaign in just a month, the Sunday Times said.
YouGov said that the results excluded those who would not vote and those who did not plan to vote or did not know how they would vote. With those groups included, secessionists would be 47 percent and those championing the United Kingdom would be at 45 percent, it added.
After months of surveys showing nationalists heading for defeat, recent polls have been showing that secessionists led by Salmond’s Scottish National Party (SNP) could achieve their goal of breaking the 307-year-old union with England.
A vote to break away would be followed by negotiations with London on what to do about the currency, national debt, North Sea oil and the future of Britain’s nuclear submarine base in Scotland.
If Scots voted to leave the United Kingdom, Prime Minister David Cameron would face calls to resign before a national election in May 2015 while the opposition Labour party’s chances of gaining a majority could be prevented if it lost its Scottish lawmakers.
However, Cameron, who was due to visit Queen Elizabeth in Scotland on Sunday, insisted he will not resign.
Nationalists accuse London of squandering Scottish wealth and say that Scotland would be one of the world’s richest countries if it took control of its own destiny.
Unionists, including Britain’s three main political parties, say the United Kingdom is stronger if it stays together and that Scottish independence would bring significant financial, economic and political uncertainty.