(Newswire.net — February 4, 2015) — The world could be at the doorstep of a worse crisis than in 2008, said Jian Zhong Guan, Chairman of the Board and President of Dagong Global Credit Rating Co., Ltd. The trigger will be the collapse of the economic model of growth based on consumption and credit. The economy expert said that the crisis will occur within the next couple of years.
“It is hard to predict the exact time when the crisis will start, however, all the symptoms are visible: Debt rise, uncertain development of the US, EU and China, as well as the countries in development,” said Guan. “The situation is even worse than in the eve of the 2008 crisis,” he said.
Basic consumption based countries are the US and EU, said Guan estimates that these countries could develop only if there is supply and demand. There is supply but demand is loan based in most of the cases.
The problem is, Guan said, that US and EU, as well as Japan are broadening consumption because of the crediting and prolonged payment. “There lays a true danger,” warned Guan.
Guan said that the developing countries took the same road, so the world’s economy was developed by consumption on the base of the yet to be earned income. He emphasized that today’s crisis in Russia is induced solely because of the western imposed sanctions and has nothing to do with internal factors.
Unlike Russia, the US and EU crisis would have internal roots. Guan pointed that in western society, there is a widening gap between the actual money that is earned and money spent in front by loans that is yet to be earned.
The US rating agency, S&P, recently downgraded the credit rating of the Russia to “BBB”, while the Chinese Dagong keeps the Russian credit rating at “A”.
The reason for that decision Guan sees is that “Russia could withhold external pressure for a long time, and remain the stable place for investments and development.”
On the other hand, no one can really predict what would happened if in the US and EU loan demand significantly decreases in next few years, but that would be the beginning of the economy model we live in.