(Newswire.net — October 15, 2016) — Chances for another candidate other than Trump and Clinton to win the US presidential elections are slim, but not impossible according to FiveThirtyEight.
While Hillary Clinton is in the lead with 87 percent against Donald Trump’s 55 percent chance to win, let’s not forget that Americans are trying to choose between wrong and worse.
The third possible candidate to be the 45th U.S. President, statistically speaking, is Evan McMullin, a little known 40-year-old former CIA officer and investment banking adviser.
The challenger from the conservative party, Evan McMullin has supported free trade, but has been heavily critical of Trump on immigration, refugees, and his anti-Muslimism rhetoric. He also joins Clinton in the belief that Trump is not fit for presidency, criticizing his temperament.
In order to win the elections, according to FiveThirtyEight, McMullin’s path would look like this:
1. Win Utah,
2. Deadlock the Electoral College
3. Win in the House.
It is fair to say that McMullin’s chance of winning Utah are pretty good, though it is hard to match Romney’s popularity. A poll conducted by Y2 Analytics, on Oct. 10-11, 2016, shows that of 500 likely Utah voters, 22% would vote for Evan McMullin, 26% for Donald Trump and 26% for Hillary Clinton.
Utah’s six electoral votes could be enough to send the election to Congress, by blocking any candidate from winning 270 in the Electoral College. The poll estimates that Trumps chances of winning the electoral votes are between 1.7 and 2.4 percent, but if McMullin wins Utah, he has a statistical chance to win the Presidential elections.
The 12th Amendment dictates that the top three presidential nominees with the highest vote count are sent to the House, which is dominated by the Republicans who have not demonstrated support towards their candidate, Trump.
But here is the twist. If McMullin goes too strong, he could bring down Trump, however, that would help Clinton win the elections. In other words, the stronger McMullin becomes, the less his chances of winning are.
No matter how unlikely the odds are, the statistical possibility for McMullin to become the next U.S. president still exists, although this may seem bizarre, there are examples of it happening in parliamentary systems around the world.