Arizona’s Economy Expected to Continue to Grow in 2019 and Jobless Claims to Fall to 3.9%

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( — December 22, 2018) — Arizona’s economy is projected to grow in 2019, adding 100,000 new people to the state, and the jobless rate is expected to fall from 4.7% to 3.9% by the end of the year. Momentum is helping the state enter 2019 with a strong forecast that was made by Arizona State University. National economic growth is expected to remain near 2.5% in 2019.

Phoenix is leading the growth, with the metropolitan area the key to the state’s job growth in 2018. People are starting to go to a to find jobs, and Phoenix is overflowing with new jobs, accounting for 88% of the state’s job growth in 2018.

Arizona’s economy struggled for years after the recession, but the state now ranks among the top five for personal income games. The state is sixth in gross state product, and job creation is the seventh best in the country.

More people are migrating to Arizona, which had the sixth highest population growth out of all states.

Per capita personal income remains low at $42,280, which ranks among the bottom 10 states for per capita personal income. Job growth remains strong, with the state adding an estimated 72,000 jobs in 2018. Job growth is expected to be 71,000 in 2019, slightly lower than this year but still very strong.

Housing prices in the metro area remain a concern, rising almost twice as fast as wages in the state. Affordability gaps are a concern and may be a key reason for slower population growth than expected. Construction slowdown is to blame for the housing price increase, to some extent, as jobs fell to 5.7% of the economy, down from 9% in 2006.

Long-term issues will remain and still need to be addressed. Economic concerns and trade fears in the United States may lead to lower economic growth in the long-term. Project funding shortfalls still remain, and a lack of strong growth in other countries may impact Phoenix-based businesses that deal with international consumers.

Tuscon’s economy is also projected to do well, with healthy gains from 2018 expected to spill into 2018. Tuscon is on pace to create the most jobs since 2006, and the area experienced a 1.5% increase in jobs in 2017.

Growth may start to slow in 2020, some economists warn, due to the national economy expected to slow at this time. Growth in the job market, sales and personal income are also expected to slow in 2020.