(Newswire.net — October 18, 2019) — There is an extremely high chance that the recession will hit the global economy in the next 12 to 18 months, according to Mark M. Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics.
“Even if we do not have a recession over the next 12 to 18 months, I think it is quite clear that we will have a much weaker economy,” Zandi said.
When asked about the chances of a global economic recession he remarked “I think high, uncomfortably high,” when talking to CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia”
There’s an “uncomfortably high” chance that a recession could hit the global economy in the next 12-18 months — and policymakers may not be able to reverse that course, an economist said on Wednesday.
In his view, in order to avoid a slowdown in economic activity, it is necessary to do several things at the same time, such as not to escalate the tariff war between the US and China, for Britain to find a solution to “Brexit” and for the central banks to continue with their monetary stimulus.
“I think the chances of a global recession are high, extremely high,” Zandi said.
However, other economists are less concerned about the recession but share Zandi’s view that growth will continue to slow.
Eswar Prasad, a professor at Cornell University, says private consumption has helped boost growth in several economies in the world, despite the staggering momentum in other sectors. But that, he points out, is not sustainable.
“Consumers and households cannot be expected to continue to drive growth. Therefore, it is crucial to devise a series of measures that will stimulate the revival of business and consumer confidence and ultimately increase investment, “Prasad told CNBC.
The International Monetary Fund revised its projection of global economic growth, which, according to recent estimates, will grow at a rate of 3.0 and 3.4 percent in 2019 and 2020, respectively. This is lower than the projection from July, when it was projected to grow 3.2 and 3.5 percent, respectively.