(Newswire.net — October 7, 2020) — As the US’s coronavirus-stricken president, Donald Trump, makes his return from a three-night stay in the hospital, bookmakers around the world continue to take bets on his chances of reelection.
But what are they anticipating?
A Trump loss.
As it stands, the odds for a Trump win in the 2020 US presidential election range from 2.55 (+155) to 2.92 (+192), depending on the sportsbook you look at.
This means that a $100 bet on Trump would payout between $255 and $292 should he win.
Conversely, betting sites are pricing a Joe Biden victory at odds of between 1.50 (-200) and 1.54 (-185).
A successful $100 bet on Biden to win would return between $150 and $154.
This also tells us that bookmakers are giving Trump a 39% to 34% chance of winning the election while they think that Biden has a 66% to 65% chance of being the next US president.
But how seriously should we take these projections, after all, no sportsbook forecasted a Trump victory in 2016 right?
US Election Betting
After the 2016 presidential election, the accuracy of political betting sites was called into question when countless bookies reported that they had suffered extensive losses.
For instance, Paddy Power, a UK bookmaker, paid out $4.5 million after the Trump victory.
However, it wasn’t only betting sites that predicted Hillary would be the next US president, almost every US election poll said the same thing, which tells us that sportsbooks are at worst as unreliable as election polls, and at best, more reliable.
Before polling came along, betting markets were one of the most accurate indicators of a candidate’s chances of winning a presidential election, supporting the idea that betting markets are still an accurate indicator of election results today.
For instance, one study found that within large US betting markets that operated between 1868 and 1940, “the market did an admirable job in forecasting elections… In only one case did the candidate clearly favored in the betting a month before Election Day lose.”
Since then, sportsbooks have gone on to predict most US and world elections with great success. The only difference is that these betting markets are now more publicised and widely accessible than they used to be.
Where can you bet on the election?
Although sports betting laws are relaxing in many states, betting on the presidential election is illegal throughout America.
The reason for this is that US lawmakers believe election betting could decrease voter turnout. The idea is that if bookmakers price a candidate highly people may think that there there is no point in going to the polls to cast their votes.
However, this argument doesn’t really stack up when you consider the fact that voters can still see the odds for the next president by visiting international betting sites – even if they can’t make bets. On top of this, countless media outlets and websites already predict the results of presidential elections based on polls.
While it is outlawed in the US for now, residents of countries where online betting is legal can still place wagers on the 2020 election.
Online sportsbooks are the most common places to place political bets, for instance, Betfair already has over $140 million worth of matched bets for the US election on its betting exchange. Other popular political bookmakers include the aforementioned Paddy Power, 888sport and the top international sports betting site Betway.
Odds for the 2020 US Presidential Election Winner
Betway
Joe Biden – 1.50
Donald Trump – 2.60
888sport
Joe Biden – 1.53
Donald Trump – 2.55
Betfair Exchange
Joe Biden – 1.54
Donald Trump – 2.92
While it’s still anybody’s guess as to who will win this year’s election, political pundits should not disregard bookies because of the errors they made in 2016.
The 59th US presidential election is scheduled for Tuesday, November 3, 2020, with the president set to be inaugurated on January 20, 2021.