(Newswire.net — May 5, 2022) — This week, headlines all over the nation talked about a leaked Supreme Court draft decision regarding a case that could potentially overturn Roe vs. Wade, the landmark legislative decision that effectively made abortion the land’s law fifty years ago. Since then, women can get abortions in all fifty states. The leaked draft decision seems to indicate that could change within the next couple of months.
This is a potentially historic decision and undeniably a divisive one. We’ll talk about it a little bit in the following article.
This Opens the Door for State-by-State Decisions
The leaked draft does not represent the Supreme Court’s final decision on this matter. It’s also not entirely clear who leaked the draft. It’s not something that happens often, but internet speculation has identified Stephen Breyer as the individual who may have done it.
Many people feel that Breyer, aSupreme Court Justice who has served in that capacity since 1994, leaked the memo. He wants those who support keeping abortion legal nationwide to start protesting the decision even before it becomes official.
So far, no physical evidence has come to light that conclusively shows Breyer leaked the memo. Regardless of how Politico got its hands on it, though, the Supreme Court did, in fact, confirm its authenticity.
What’s vital to remember is that if the draft becomes the land’s law in a few weeks, several states will immediately outlaw abortion, while others will not. What most people call “blue states” will probably keep and strengthen laws keeping abortion legal.
Every state has its own protections, usually signed into law by elected officials. For instance, New York is a blue state. They have certain unique initiatives in place, like the Consumer Directed Personal Assistance Program. It helps low-income families on Medicaid protect their financial assets so the Medicaid program cannot seize them to pay for home health aides and other medical services someone utilizing the program needs.
That makes New York a “liberal” state. If you peruse a map of where states will make abortion illegal if the Supreme Court overturns Roe vs. Wade in a few weeks, you’ll see that many southern states have these provisions in place. Other states might still legally allow abortions, but only in certain very specific instances, such as when there’s a danger to the mother’s life if she carries the child to term.
The Supreme Court Can Still Change Its Mind
It’s also worth noting that this is a leaked draft, which is not the same as a published one. Any of the nine sitting Supreme Court Justices could still change their minds. However, that doesn’t seem terribly likely. The smart money is on the Supreme Court overturning Roe vs. Wade sometime in July or August.
That will create even further division in this country, any way you slice it. Essentially, the problem stems from polls that consistently state that more people in the US want abortion to remain legal in every state vs. those who want to do away with it. You have a Supreme Court recognized as the nation’s highest legal body that ultimately determines precedent. That amounts to a smaller population segment getting what they want that goes against what a larger contingent wants.
Compromise on this Issue
There’s an adage that says an agreement usually ends when both parties leave the negotiation table unsatisfied. Abortion seems like an issue that will never satisfy everyone in this country. You will always have individuals who feel like abortion is a woman’s fundamental right because it means they can keep their reproductive autonomy.
Those on the other side feel that by making abortion illegal or severely limited access to it, they’re saving lives. They truly think that life begins at conception, so abortion amounts to murder.
Some people can meet in the middle when talking about various societal concepts, but this does not seem like one of them. Very few people feel passive about this issue and can go either way on it. Most individuals seem like they want to stay firmly in one camp. Many of them want to voice their opinions about it as loudly and frequently as possible.
Every conceivable social media platform has been abuzz with this news for the past couple of days, and every TV news outlet as well. The leaked memo forced President Biden to say the word “abortion” to the press, which he had staunchly avoided doing for his presidency’s last two years.
Compromise seems nearly impossible on this subject because people feel so strongly about it. Individuals have bombed abortion clinics over the years because they feel so passionately about their cause’s validity.
Abortions Will Not Stop
One thing is patently obvious, though. Whether you’re pro-choice or pro-life, making abortion illegal in certain states or all of them will not stop these procedures. You will always have women who want to end their pregnancies, and no law will prevent them from doing so.
You can look at failed wars on other things that people wanted in the US to see how they worked out. Reagan’s so-called “war on drugs” was an abysmal failure.
History has shown us since humans first walked the Earth that they like intoxicants. Reagan and his administration spent untold billions trying to get drugs off the streets, and they’re just as popular now as they have ever been. People like to self-medicate, and you can’t legislate that away.
Prohibition a hundred years ago is another prime example. The Egyptians and the Romans imbibed alcoholic substances, so we know it has gone on for thousands of years. It took America less than two decades to figure out that the Temperance Movement was a colossal failure.
Abortion’s Future in America
Getting back to abortion, let’s say for a moment that the Supreme Court overturns Roe vs. Wade, as seems primed to happen in a few weeks. Progressives have warned about this for years, especially since the last few Supreme Court Justices to reach the nation’s highest court seemed to have a more conservative bent.
Now, progressives’ fears seem primed to come true, at least regarding this particular issue. If and when the Supreme Court hands down a ruling striking down abortion nationwide as the land’s law, leaving many states free to outlaw it, that doesn’t mean abortions will decrease. Instead, it means those safe abortions will decrease.
You can’t stop a woman from aborting a child if she wants to, just like you can’t stop someone from buying and using drugs if they’re dead-set on doing it. Women will return to back-alley abortions, and some of them will die from them. Others will have children they don’t want because they can’t afford to travel to other states with legal abortions available.
This is a seemingly never-ending fight. How could it end, when some people feel like prohibiting abortions saves lives while others feel like denying it destroys them? Some single-issue voters feel so strongly about this one thing that they’ll vote for a political candidate who champions making abortions legal or illegal, regardless of what else that candidate does or says.
The Court Will Likely Swing Back at Some Point
By most definitions, there are currently six conservative Supreme Court Justices and three progressive ones. Stephen Breyer will retire soon, so expect President Biden to replace him with another progressive. That won’t swing the balance of power, though. It will remain firmly conservative, with most critical decisions going to the conservative side by a vote of 6-3.
At some point, though, things will swing back in the other direction. It’s virtually inevitable. If there’s a Democratic president in power when another vacant Supreme Court seat comes up, that President will nominate a progressive or liberal judge. It’s hard to agree with anyone who says that US presidents support politically neutral Supreme Court candidates.
There are a couple of ways that things could change. It’s possible that our elected officials could, at some point, decide to add more Justices to the Supreme Court. If more than nine sitting Justices make decisions, that could mean different outcomes on divisive issues.
Term limits are another possibility. Right now, Supreme Court Justices serve for life. Some politicians, and the public at large, want this to change. We’ll just have to wait and see whether that happens anything soon.
One thing is clear. Regardless of whether the leaked draft turns out the same as when the Supreme Court releases its official decision in a few weeks, there’s certainly a lot of tumult and outrage that will dominate the news cycle for the rest of the year and beyond. Either progressives or conservatives will declare a major victory.
Whatever side comes out on top, it’s only temporary. This issue remains too divisive to ever remain settled law, either now or at any time in the foreseeable future. As for abortions, whether safe or not, they will continue, just as they always have.