(Newswire.net — July 19, 2015) — British solar scientists created a model of Sun’s activity that showed 60 percent decrease. However, experts warn that if this is to be true, not only that the River Thames could freeze, but it would be the end of mankind.
“A decrease in solar output of 1 percent would be a very big deal for the climate system. A 60 percent decrease would end all life on Earth, forever probably,” James Renwick, a professor at the Victoria University of Wellington in New Zealand and an expert in atmospheric physics, told Newsweek.
“I am rather surprised no one has commented on this yet or pointed out how unlikely it is,” Professor Renwick added.
The decrease noted in the original report was a reference to solar flares or sunspots, not the sun’s total output.
Professor Renwick explained that findings of Professor Valentina Zharkova, who analyzed three solar activity cycles that cover a period from 1976 to 2008, are valid. However, the data were misinterpreted, as there will be no decrease in solar activity. The data only showed solar cycle may decline by 60 percent during this period, and that is not the same.
According to Professor Zharkova, who researched convex fluids deep within the Sun’s layers, magnetic wave components appear in pairs, originating in two different layers in the Sun’s interior. Both cycles have an 11-year frequency, but are “slightly different, and offset in time.”
The thing is, the Zharkova’s team was analyzing the sun’s 11-year cycles from a purely astronomical perspective, and the press release said nothing about its effect on Earth.
Professor Renwick explained that during an 11-year period in the 2030s, the two magnetic waves that produce sunspots will almost cancel each other out. The material ejected from the sun could drop by 60 percent compared with the previous cycle.
According to Professor Renwick, this 60 percent decrease in sunspots will lower the Sun’s output roughly 0.1 percent. That figure is not worrying, especially giving the effects of heating the Earth’s surface by CO2 pollution.
“The levels of CO2 and other greenhouse gases are so much higher now that temperatures would not drop much below where they are today, according to Professor Renwick.
“That drop would last only until 2050 or so. Then we’d have a bounce upwards again,” he concluded.
In the 1900s, when the river Thames froze, the event was not a wide-ranging or worldwide event. Even the ‘Little Ice Age’, which lasted from 1300 to the mid-1600s, was more the result of a persistent ‘polar express’ than world climate change.