(Newswire.net — October 16, 2019) — Two US expert groups have made an analysis of what would happen if the United States decided to leave NATO, arguing that one of the consequences would be armed conflicts in one of the Western Balkan countries, started by pro-Russian forces, Russian news agency IISS news Tweeted.
The analysis of “European Security in a Crisis” by the expert group Körber Policy Game and the International Institute for Strategic Studies, according to the scenario, is irresistibly reminiscent of the “coup d’état” attempt in Montenegro, and states that tensions in Europe could begin just months after the re-election of Donald Trump as president of the United States.
In the Körber Policy Game a small group of high-ranking international politicians, government officials, and experts discuss and analyze interests of various foreign policy actors in the context of a potential fictional scenario.
According to experts from the US, UK, Germany, Poland and France who worked on this analysis, Russia would use the unstable situation to propose a “new security treaty” to Europe, Sputnik reports.
Trump brings instability
Analyst Bosko Vukicevic believes that the analysis of the International Institute for Strategic Studies group and the Körber Group, which predict a dramatic war scenario, can be viewed in several ways, but above all it can be seen that Donald Trump is presented as a person who brings instability and developments filled with unrest and conflict.
“Given that the presidential election in America is getting closer, it is a legitimate and logical assumption that this conception is intended primarily for American voters. Its goal would be to impose US voters’ opinion on Trump as a disruptive factor that disrupts the Western security framework, undermining his second presidential term, “Vukicevic says to Sputnik.
Discouraging Europeans
In addition, according to Vukicevic, the analysis is also intended for European NATO members, for the purpose of intimidating them into alleged threats from Russia.
“The scenario described here involves the usual division of roles from Western cuisine: Russia, as usual, plays the ‘bad guy’, who, with the right amount of hypocrisy, threatens the borders and security of ‘innocent and naive’ European countries. The analysis attributes to President Putin the role of a ‘wicked man’, who formally proposes a ‘new European security system’ while, on the other hand, he makes aggressive moves that lead to a situation similar to the Cuban Missile Crisis,” Vukicevic explained.
He added that, from his angle, the study undoubtedly favors the view that Americans should not leave NATO.
Montenegrin Scenario
What is most interesting in the analysis to the audience in the Balkans is that, apart from predicting the Balkan war in the imagined event of US withdrawal from NATO, it also almost completely mirrors the scenario of the alleged “coup” in Montenegro.
According to Vukicevic, this unequivocally means that the useful value of the alleged “coup” in Montenegro for various NATO lobbyists is still quite high.
Nevertheless, despite all of this, the analysts conclude that while the unpredictability of the US president has not violated some of the fundamental guidelines of US foreign policy so far, it is not excluded that it will not occur during Trump’s second term, which, if it does, could be marked by many surprises in Washington’s foreign policy.
“The American departure from Syria is already giving some clues as to what might happen in the future. The dissolution of NATO does not seem realistic at the moment, but if it does, it will not necessarily mean the outbreak of conflict and hostilities in the Balkans, as suggested in the analysis,” Vukicevic said.
“On the other hand, the eventual end of NATO could mean the emergence of a new security architecture in Europe, which would be more favorable and equitable for most nations than ever,” he added.