(Newswire.net — December 16, 2020) — Week 14 is in the books, and we have a lead change in the NFC East. The Packers have clinched the NFC North, and the Saints can do so in the South with one more win. Meanwhile, the Steelers took another loss but remain firmly in the lead of the AFC North, and the Chiefs maintain a stranglehold on the AFC West. The Titans and Colts are duking it out for the AFC South title.
NFC East vs. NFC West
Another Washington win has the former Redskins standing on top of the NFC East and now, slowly shuffling their way towards a possible winning season.
Their win over the San Francisco 49ers makes four in a row. It seems like something has clicked for the Washington Football Team – still so weird saying that. Next week, they get a chance to prove themselves against, perhaps, the best team in the NFC West.
When we look at the odds provided by SBR, we see that the Seattle Seahawks are 5-point favorites at most shops, despite the fact that they are the road team and have shown some significant signs of weakness over the last few weeks.
The basic math we need to start with, given this matchup is 3.8 + 1.9. The Seahawks have a power rating of 3.8 while the Washington Football Team has a power rating of -1.9. Normally, when you add positives and negatives, different things happen. But in the case of power ratings, it means the Seahawks would beat an average team by 3.8 points on a neutral field, and the Washington Football Team should lose by 1.9 points in the same situation. So, it’s simple sums.
If this game were in a neutral setting, the point spread should be six points. However, it’s not. This tilt is taking place over in Washington, so we need to give the home team a field goal for home-field advantage. So, if we subtract three from 5.7, we end up with 2.7, or just a field goal when we round up to the nearest whole.
At a glance, it looks like the Seattle Seahawks may be getting a bit too much love and are overvalued on this betting line.
So, let’s look a little deeper.
The Seahawks have a definitive offensive advantage. Up to this point this season, they average 30.23 points per game. However, while out on the road, that number falls by roughly a point to 29.33 ppg. A good note for Seattle fans is the fact that the Washington Football Team only scores 22.08 points per game on average, and when they are at home in FedEx Field, that number falls to 19.83.
On the bright side, the Washington Football Team has had a stellar defense. They rank sixth in the league allowing just a smidge over 19 points per game. When they play at home, they rank No. 4, allowing just 18 points and change. Conversely, the Seahawks allow 24.92 points per game (25), and on the road, it gets worse 28.17. It’s a 10 point swing on defense.
So, we have a Seahawks team that scores roughly 10 points more per game, but a Washington team that allows about 10 points less. Hmm … interesting. This line opened at six at most shops and was bet down. When we look at the last for games for each team, the Washington offense has actually played slightly better than the Seahawks. That said, Alex Smith is questionable, leaving the game against the 49ers with a mild calf strain. Now, you might say ok, that doesn’t sound serious, and it isn’t really, but they tend to be one of those griping injuries that nag at a player for a few weeks. Usually, a player with a calf strain won’t be able to return the following week, lest they turn the strain into a tear.
Dwayne Haskins to be ready if Alex Smith can’t play with calf strain, by @Matthew_Paras. https://t.co/WnfGHOAtEk #AlexSmith #WashingtonFootball #DwayneHaskins
— WashTimes Sports (@WashTimesSports) December 14, 2020
If I were sure that Smith would play, I would hop all over this five to six-point line. But I am going to wait it out and see if we can get some more info on Alex Smith before buying in on what seems to be a favorable betting line.